Seeing Through the Clouds

Google (Public, NASDAQ:GOOG) is not the only one headed for the clouds, IBM (Public, NYSE:IBM) announced the Blue Cloud yesterday. Cloud computing is an emerging lingo to describe a shared infrastructure in which large pools of systems are linked together to provide support and services to users. It sounds great, so let's start with our outlook on the future of operating systems. There are two contradicting trends in computer technology today.

Above the cloud with its shadow is the star with its light -- Pythagoras

1. Software is moving from the operating system level into the space of web browsers and the Internet.

2. Hardware is becoming more specialized, either via additional specialized CPU cores inside system-on-chip solutions or separate co-processors aimed to accelerate graphics output, audio manipulation, and more (and more with time...).

The first trend implies that operating systems will become less important in the future in the sense that the amount of software that will run inside OS-agnostic web browser engines will rise strongly. The second trend, however, limits how many applications can move away from the operating system level without a severe performance penalty. Today's web browsers are not designed to be used with specialized co-processors, DSPs, etc. Nevertheless, Intel will continue to be able to sell stronger and stronger processors even if the power performance scales in a new direction. The key point is that for rich 3D graphics and many other tasks, using web technologies will remain unattractive for a long time to come. Thus, we think, operating systems will continue to play an important role for the foreseeable future, despite many premature reports of their imminent death.

Second, let's look at the market segmentation of consumer operating systems. There are:

#1 Operating systems for phones and personal digital assistants.

#2 Operating systems for ultra-mobile devices which can replace or complement desktop computers (yes, Dave, we need something else to describe "desktop" as there is too much corporate baggage associated with the word).

#3 Operating systems for desktop computers / workstations.

Today, the market provides adequate operating system choices for only two of these three segments.

Category #1:

- Usually the functionality of the OS is highly limited.

- Target devices are designed to complement computers, not replace them.

- Compatibility with peripherals other than computers has often no priority.

- The ability to run third party software is sometimes prohibited.

- Inflexibility with regard to screen size, input methods, etc., is common.

Some examples: Symbian OS, Windows Mobile, Palm / Garnet OS, OSX for iPhone / iPod

Category #3:

These are designed for high-end hardware, thus excessive memory, storage and CPU requirements. The main examples being:

- Recommended hardware specifications for Windows Vista:

2 GB of memory (512MB is the minimum requirement), a minimum of 15GB of disk space, at least 128 MB graphics memory, a 3D graphics accelerator which supports pixel shaders, and a Pentium processor clocked at 1 Ghz or faster.

- Bare minimum hardware specifications for MacOS X 10.5:

512 MB of memory, at least 9 GB of free disk space, at least a G4 processor clocked at 867 MHz or faster.

- Recommended hardware requirements for Ubuntu Linux:

256 MB of memory, 3 GB of free disk space, 700 MHz Pentium processor or faster

None of these operating systems is a good fit for the current and next generation of energy efficient ultra-mobile PCs which would have been perceived as super-computers a number of years ago, but provide barely or not quite enough performance for today's desktop operating systems. Where is the operating system that fits between Category #1 and Category #3 and combines the efficiency of operating systems found in the former with the flexibility of those in the latter?

Can you see the light?

We will look into Category #2 tomorrow, as we continue to think through the Android opportunity...

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R&B